ASEAN CENTRALITY NEEDS REDEFINITION OR GETTING DIFFERENT DYNAMICS? THE 57th ASEAN FOREIGN MINISTERS’ MEETING VIEW. ASEAN SINCE OCTOBER 20, 2024
By Ambassador (p) Gheorghe Savuica*
In spite of the fact that the concept of ASEAN Centrality is very well elaborated and regionally and internationally accepted there is now a serious topic among the analysts in Southeast Asia that this very pivot of ASEAN as the driving force in its relations with external partners as well as in the evolving regional architecture is confronted by risks of losing the speed in achieving its targets and therefore the concept has to be redefined.
Almost every week something is happening in Asia-Pacific creating an atmosphere of doubts, tension and fear. The regional architecture, particularly on defence and security, involving as well some ASEAN members, turned over to a tendency of rapid change and extension in different forms and arrangements.
These new security and defence arrangements are built on the bilateral basis. As a result, one could say that even if they are components of the regional architecture they are not contrary to ASEAN Centrality, particularly if ASEAN was previously consulted as supposed to. In the absence of such normal diplomatic step related to a new form of the regional architecture, it could be very well interpreted that the concept of ASEAN Centrality is disregarded irrespective of the real truth that the concept became already a way of conduct in Asia-Pacific with common responsibility, being unanimously accepted and steadily repeated.
For sure, the matter is under consideration of ASEAN, but it continues to treat it and react in its soft way of approaching the important matters of its region and member countries. The latest evidence is represented by the ASEAN Future Forum 2024, initiated and hosted by Vietnam on 22-23 April, 2024. During the Lunch Retreat the topic was “Redefining ASEAN Centrality”, having as moderator Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia, Marty Natalegawa.
It is of utmost importance that the Forum is evoked in the Joint Communiqué of the 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, held on 25 July 2024, in Vientiane (LAOS is the current Chair of ASEAN), in the sense that it “complements the exercise of developing the Strategic Plans of the ASEAN Community Vision 2045. We noted that this Forum contributed to ASEAN efforts in strengthening the regional cooperation and integration. We further welcomed Viet Nam’s plan to convene the ASEAN Future Forum in the years to come”.
At the same 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, the ASEAN member countries gave a loud and clear signal that relevance and resilience of ASEAN Centrality remains the core of ASEAN stand and policy and “ reiterated the importance of maintaining an ASEAN-centred, open, inclusive, transparent, resilient, and rules-based regional architecture that upholds international law and of strengthening our engagement and cooperation with Dialogue Partners and external partners, including through existing ASEAN-led mechanisms, in promoting peace, stability, security, development, and growth to enhance our regional resilience to respond to common and emerging challenges.”
In the context of here analyzed subject, it is important to underline that the Communiqué made clear that “we further reaffirmed our commitment to strengthening the ASEAN Community, its unity and Centrality”- the three main interconnected targets of ASEAN. In fact, UNITY is the guarantee of ASEAN Community and Centrality. Therefore, one could expect that the “redefinition” of ASEAN Centrality might be found in the ASEAN Community Vision 2045, being now under process.
The wording “redefining”, in this stage, without defining the redefining, creates a lot of interpretations.
There is no doubt that the core of ASEAN Centrality will not be changed. It might be strengthened with a different vivacity of ASEAN, dynamics and clarifications for all involved partners in safeguarding the end results – peace and stability in Asia-Pacific. Under the current international and regional developments and challenges, the today concept suffers of the lack of compulsory requirement of clarifying the joint rights and responsibilities of the two sides committed into an arrangement, being it even a gentlemen agreement or a political declaration. What could happen if a current or future component, being it bilateral, trilateral or other format of the regional architecture, might provoke a state out of control, jeopardizing peace and stability in Asia-Pacific? The today concept of ASEAN Centrality could be easily kept responsible as its scope and essence are to be the core of the regional architecture quarantining the peace and stability in Asia-Pacific.
The expected moment for a possible reinforced concept of ASEAN Centrality could be October 20, 2024, when the President and Vice President of Indonesia will be sworn in. Indonesia is an uncontested driving force in the Association. Most probably, we will see a vibrant ASEAN with a larger spectrum of action and implications.
As one, who, in different capacities, is following the development of ASEAN since its foundation in 1967, I can state, without hesitation, that ASEAN has achieved unbelievable success and, practically, is a real driving force to maintain peace and stability in Asia-Pacific, and not only, having the ability to fit in, with a positive note, into any geopolitical developments. In fact, ASEAN position is the mirror of how the states should behave themselves to safeguard the international peace.
The 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting is the latest example of a clear vision on haw the world has to be and act. Without clearly mentioning in its Communiqué the tumultuous and dangerous developments in the world and Asia-Pacific, the ASEAN is providing its calm and balanced position,but being added by firm statements of its senior representatives outside of the official meeting.
To present the full picture, without going into details, one should mention that ASEAN is also confronted with internal critical remarks regarding its soft approach, particularly on serious regional matters and dangerous developments in Asia-Pacific as well as on some unfortunate situations and action that might afect the unity of ASEAN.
* The author is the Founder and President of IRSEA and Founder and Honorary President of Romania-Malaysia Chamber of Commerce and Industry. He is a graduate of Moscow State Institute of International Relations. As a career diplomat with over four decades of diplomatic service, an University recognized specialist on Southeast Asia and ASEAN, speaker of Bahasa Indonesia, Russian and English, he represented Romania as Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Pakistan and Indonesia and Chief of Mission, with Cabinet Letter, to Sri Lanka, Malaysia, the Philippines, Cyprus, Finland and Estonia.
He published multiple articles, thought-pieces and commentaries reflecting his views on current dynamics in International Affairs and the ongoing developments related to the greater scope of Europe Asia relations. He authored several major chapters in edited volumes on Romania’s Foreign Policy, published by the Romanian Academy.
Ambassador (p) Savuica is a former Director of the Republic of Moldova Division, former Director of the Asia Pacific Division and former Director General of the Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa and Latin America Department in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of ROMANIA.
He is married and has two daughters, a granddaughter and a grandson.