In accordance with the ASEAN Charter (art. 31), the Chairmanship of the international organisation rotates annually following the alphabetical order of the English name of each member state. Far from a figurehead of the organisation, the state assuming Chairmanship presides over the ASEAN Summit, ASEAN Coordinating Council, ASEAN Community Councils, Committee of Permanent Representatives, as well as the Ministerial Bodies. Themed “We Care, We Prepare, We Prosper”, the Bruneian Chairmanship of ASEAN for 2021 witnesses a strengthened ASEAN emerging from the Vietnamese Chairmanship of 2020. Ready for an economic restart in the post-COVID era, especially in the light of the recently-signed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), yet facing certain geopolitical challenges from both established and emerging great powers, Brunei’s mandate plays a significant role in the regional architecture of Southeast Asia.
As Hanoi handed over the ASEAN Chairmanship to Bandar Seri Begawan starting on January 1, Brunei is called upon to manage an equally crucial year for the region in its fifth Chairmanship in the history of the regional organisation. The geopolitical balance of the post-pandemic world, global economic challenges, as well as maritime territorial disputes represent several of the challenges that the Bruneian Chairmanship is called to mitigate. Naturally, as positions and interests may at times diverge, as in any democratic organisation, the Sultanate’s leadership comes at a complex moment. With a different political weight compared to Vietnam, a total area slightly larger than Singapore and the smallest number of inhabitants in ASEAN, the Sultanate of Brunei benefits, however, of a significant economic weight, provided its natural resources as well as its second highest GDP per capita in Southeast Asia.
According to the Bruneian Foreign Minister, Dato Seri Setia Haji Erywan Bin Pehin Datu Pekerma Jaya Haji Mohd Yusof, Bandar Seri Begawan will work closely with the fellow ASEAN nations to assure progress towards ASEAN Community Vision 2025. At the same time, the Bruneian Chairmanship will consolidate ASEAN’s resilience against future uncertainties. In a recent lecture on the Bruneian ASEAN Chairmanship hosted by ISEAS in Singapore, Dato Erywan pointed out three main directions of ASEAN in 2021: Harnessing the Caring Nature of ASEAN(as the member states seek to ensure a quick recovery from the nefarious effects of the pandemic), Preparing ASEAN for the Future(by continuing to adhere to international law and multilateral rules) and Creating Opportunities and Enhancing Sustainable Prosperity in the Region(by complementing the economies of the other member states, while avoiding to engage in unhealthy competition).
Naturally, the outcomes of these directions will be thoroughly discussed during the expected ASEAN Foreign Ministers meeting on January 21-22, when issues of regional and international importance will meet ASEAN’s scrutiny and unity.
From an economic standpoint, Brunei is expected to continue the economic legacy of the Vietnamese chairmanship in ratifying the RCEP. In matters of security, the timeline initiated by the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang with regard to drafting the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea(2018-2021) needs to be similarly tackled, in spite of the relatively slow pace of the recent negotiations. Obviously, the document is paramount in securing the interests of the ASEAN members in their multilateral relations with Beijing. From a geostrategic point, the ASEAN Outlook on the Indopacific, a document elaborated in June 2019, might need amendments to reflect the dynamic evolution of the common foreign policy of the member states.
As Brunei’s main trading partner, China has developed several major projects in the country, the recent – and most visible – Sultan Haji Omar Ali Saifuddien Bridge linking the country with the Temburong exclave. Part of the Brunei-Guangxi Economic Corridor, under the umbrella of the Belt and Road Initiative, Brunei also hosts numerous Chinese investment projects in fishing, agriculture and communication (5G network capabilities). Moreover, during a bilateral meeting at foreign ministers level on January 14, 2021, the Sultanate agreed to harmonize its objectives of the Wawasan Brunei 2035 with China's Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035. The recent trip of the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, to Brunei, as well as Myanmar, Indonesia and the Philippines, has stressed upon the great – and pragmatic – importance China attaches to its cooperation with ASEAN, promising elevating bilateral relations to “new levels”.
Of course, given Brunei’s historical links with the United Kingdom, but also the European Union and the United States, the Sultanate is very likely(to propose) to act in favor of maintaining a balance and diversity of international partnerships, which is the line with the ASEAN strategy and actions.
Naturally, as ASEAN’s driving force, Indonesia is expected to significantly contribute to the ASEAN developments toward the ASEAN Community Vision 2025. In the light of the new “vaccine diplomacy”, Indonesia seeks a robust post-pandemic recovery, with President Joko Widodo having been injected with the first SinoVac dose in the country.
For 2021, however, ASEAN’s most complex challenge is to remain a vector of peace, security and stability in the region, prioritizing national interest and national sovereignty without taking any sides.Such a lofty goal requires the moderation and unity of all member states.
Dr. N.F.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the official policy, position or view of IRSEA.