19.06.2024

 Asia – Pacific contribution to the Summit on Peace in Ukraine

On 15 and 16 June 2024, Switzerland organized the Summit on Peace in Ukraine at the Bürgenstock (Canton of Nidwalden). According to the official point of view, the aim of the high level meeting was to develop a common understanding of a path towards a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. This should be the basis for a peace process. The important event was attended by 100 delegates.

The Summit ended with a Joint Communique on a Peace Framework, which was supported at the level of Head of State/ Head of Government by 55 delegates, at the ministerial level by 32 delegates, at the level of Envoys by 5 delegates and at the level of Organizations by 8 delegates.

In spite of different opinions expressed so far on the results of the Summit and the content of its Communique the most important conclusion seems to be the possibility to witness similar follow-ups towards achieving a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine. However, the way to reach a substantial peaceful trend could not be very easy or rapid until and unless a sort of flexibility on both sides becomes feasible. It might determine Russia and China to come up individually or jointly with their initiatives to emphasize the level of international support for Russia.

Asia-Pacific was represented by 12 countries (Australia, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, Palau, the Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Timor Leste). Fiji, Japan and Timor Leste participated in the group of Head of States/ Head of Governments while Australia, India, New Zealand, the Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Thailand in the ministerial group. Indonesia was represented at the level of Envoy.

India, Indonesia and Thailand did not support the Joint Communique.

G.S.

The reasons of the incomplete response from the Southeast Asian countries and members of ASEAN are very well analyzed by Ian Storey, Senior Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, in his article entitled:

How Many Southeast Asian Countries Will Attend the Ukraine Peace Summit?

PUBLISHED 6 JUN 2024

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskky has pulled out all the stops to get Asian countries to attend the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.

The biggest surprise of this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) was the unscheduled appearance of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Although Zelenskyy spoke to SLD delegates by video link in June 2022, this was his first in-person appearance.

In a reception at the Shangri-La Hotel usually reserved for movie stars, Ukraine’s wartime leader gave a hard-hitting speech in which he slammed Russian aggression, upstaging both US and China.

His participation at this year’s SLD comes at a difficult time for Ukraine. Over the past few months, Russia has made significant gains on the battlefield, capturing a handful of Ukrainian villages near the key city of Kharkiv in the north-east of the country, albeit at great cost in dead and wounded. Ukraine’s armed forces have been unable to staunch the Russian offensive due to dire shortages of both men and munitions, though there are signs this may be changing.

So why did Zelenskyy take time out to travel to Singapore?

The Ukrainian leader’s primary goal was to drum up support from Asian countries to attend the Global Peace Summit (GPS) which will be held in the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock on 15-16 June.

As Zelenskyy outlined in his speech, the aim of the GPS is to develop a roadmap for peace by focusing on three key issues: nuclear security (especially at the Russian-occupied nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia); food security (ensuring the export of wheat and other foodstuffs, especially to countries in the Global South); and humanitarian issues (particularly prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russian forces in occupied areas).

Three years into the Russia-Ukraine war, the crisis is still a matter of great concern for governments across Southeast Asia.  Yet the Swiss peace conference once again underscores their different approaches to the savage conflict.

Switzerland has invited 160 countries and organisations, and according to Zelenskyy 106 governments have already accepted. Many European countries will attend as well as the US (though Kyiv is disappointed that America will be represented by Vice President Kamala Harris rather than President Joe Biden himself who will attend an election fund-raising event).

Russia has not been invited. China has said it will not attend because Russia will not be represented. At a press conference after his speech, Zelenskyy was very critical of China, accusing it of prolonging the war because of its support for Russia, an accusation Beijing has rejected.

How about Southeast Asia? How many of the 11 regional states will attend?

Four countries have already confirmed their attendance: Timor-Leste, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

Timor-Leste’s attendance is not surprising given it was itself invaded by Indonesia in 1975 and that its current leader, President Jose-Ramos Horta (whom Zelenskyy met on the sidelines of SLD), led the diplomatic push for Indonesia’s withdrawal.

After his visit to Singapore, Zelenskyy flew to the Philippines and secured the support of the Philippine government, though it remains to be seen whether President Ferdinand Marcos Jr himself will attend. The Philippines’ participation in the GPS was a given due to Marcos’ strong criticism of Russia and his administration’s tighter relations with the U.S.

Singapore was also expected to attend. Among the ASEAN member states, Singapore has taken the most principled stand against Russia’s invasion and is the only regional state to have imposed unilateral sanctions against the aggressor. Singapore will be represented by Senior Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and National Development Sim Ann.

Thailand has reportedly also said yes to Switzerland’s invitation, despite the country’s neutral stance on the war. Vice Foreign Minister Russ Jalichandra will represent the country at the conference.

Indonesia has not committed yet, but will almost certainly attend. The conflict has exacerbated rising food and energy prices in Indonesia, prompting President Joko Widodo to travel to Russia and Ukraine in July 2022. In Moscow, Widodo lobbied President Vladimir Putin to open a grain corridor through the Black Sea. At last year’s SLD, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto announced a “peace plan” to end the conflict, which while half-baked and opposed by Ukraine (and most European countries) went down well at home (Prabowo reiterated the same plan at the dialogue this year). President Widodo may attend himself, but is more likely to send president-elect Prabowo who met with Zelenskyy at SLD.

Three ASEAN member states’ participation can be ruled out: Myanmar, Vietnam and Laos.

Since the military coup in February 2021, Myanmar has moved closer to the Kremlin in a bid to secure Russian military hardware to counter anti-junta forces who now occupy nearly half the country. Myanmar was the only ASEAN member to endorse Russia’s invasion.

Vietnam and Laos have longstanding ties with Russia, and are dependent on Moscow for the upkeep of their Russian-equipped armed forces. Both countries consistently abstained from United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion. To attend would be considered an unfriendly act by Moscow.

Whether Malaysia will send a delegation to Switzerland remains unclear. As underscored at the SLD, Malaysia views the Israel-Hamas conflict as a much higher priority than the Russia-Ukraine war. But if its immediate neighbours attend, Malaysia may not want to be seen as the odd man out.

Brunei, too, is still mulling its invitation.

Cambodia’s response will be interesting to watch. At the time of the invasion, then-prime minister Hun Sen resisted pressure from China to abstain from UNGA resolutions on Ukraine. As Zelenskyy has charged, but China has denied, Cambodia may well have come under pressure from Beijing to stay away. If Prime Minister Hun Manet does go to Switzerland, it suggests he is determined to uphold Cambodia’s strategic autonomy.

Three years into the Russia-Ukraine war, the crisis is still a matter of great concern for governments across Southeast Asia.  Yet the Swiss peace conference once again underscores their different approaches to the savage conflict.

Ian Storey is a Senior Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.

The article was published by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute as:

 “How Many Southeast Asian Countries will attend the Ukraine Peace Summit?”

 https://fulcrum.sg/how-many-southeast-asian-countries-will-attend-the-ukraine-peace-summit/

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The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the official policy, position or view of IRSEA.