Published: 2 Jan 2025

Author: Ian Storey

The prognosis for tensions in the South China Sea dispute this year is pretty straightforward: what has been and is will continue to be so, and perhaps even worse.

In the new year, the Trump administration’s policies towards China and the wider Indo-Pacific region will have a significant impact on the South China Sea dispute.

If 2024 was anything to go by, tensions are more likely to go up than down.

In 2024, the rancour between the Philippines and China surged to dangerous new levels. The Marcos administration continued to push back against China’s encroachments in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), reinforcing the Sierra Madre, a dilapidated warship grounded on Second Thomas Shoal. It publicised the China Coast Guard’s (CCG) aggressive actions against the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and strengthened its alliance with the United States.

China responded by trying to blockade Second Thomas Shoal, resulting in a series of tense incidents in which the CCG rammed and fired water cannons at PCG vessels, injuring several Filipino coastguard personnel.

For full article, please open the link:

https://fulcrum.sg/the-south-china-sea-in-2025-more-of-the-same-possibly-worse/

The article was published by ISEAS.

IRSEA and ISEAS have agreed to enter into a relationship of cooperation.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the official policy, position or view of IRSEA