“If only” isn’t a good basis for designing foreign policy, but ASEAN and China both need to look beyond the current tensions in the South China Sea at the bigger, far-reaching picture of the region’s future to decide if they want peace and if so, how they’re going to get there, together.

Endy Bayuni (The Jakarta Post)  Apr 15, 2024

PREMIUM

If only China and ASEAN had concluded their negotiations on a binding code of conduct on the South China Sea (SCS), we would not be worried so much today about the tensions rising between ASEAN member the Philippines and China in the strategic waterway.

As it stands now, geopolitical developments are potentially leading to war as both sides double down on their claims over the disputed Scarborough Shoal through military reinforcements.

Last week, the Philippines held a joint military drill in the maritime area with the United States, Japan and Australia. Not far off, China held a combat naval patrol during the same week.

Clearly if war breaks out, it will draw in many more nations than just the two in the dispute.

“If only” is not a good basis for foreign policy, but at this stage of the row between the Philippines and China, it still serves as a reminder of a possible way out of the impasse.

For ASEAN and particularly Indonesia, which initiated drafting the agreement on the code of conduct, it is a reminder that there is still time to get all parties together to complete the negotiations and sign the document before it’s too late; meaning, before war erupts with all its devastating consequences for countries in the region and beyond.

If the Code of Conduct on the South China Sea is signed, it will compel all parties to refrain from using force in resolving territorial disputes.

China lays claim to almost the entire South China Sea, parts of which overlap the separate territorial claims of ASEAN members, including the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia.

So far, China’s row with the Philippines is the only one that has come to the fore. Other claimant countries, however, cannot take it for granted that China will not come after them. Every ASEAN state, both claimants and non-claimants, has a stake in putting the code of conduct in place.

Soon after signing the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in 2002, ASEAN and China launched negotiations over the more binding code. Progress has been slow since then, with Beijing reluctant to commit to anything.

In July 2023, then-ASEAN chair Indonesia persuaded China to agree on guidelines to accelerate the negotiations without committing to any time frame.

Looking at the latest developments in the South China Sea, this may not be fast enough to stop war from erupting. By the current trajectory, the South China Sea, rather than the Taiwan Strait, could become the flash point for open conflict between the US and China.

ASEAN, least of all the Philippines, should not allow the region to become the site of a proxy war between the two superpowers. It’s time for ASEAN, or rather Indonesia, to step into the turbulent geopolitical waters of the South China Sea and use all diplomatic resources at its disposal to prevent war.

One tool ASEAN could use in mediation efforts is the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, the bloc’s principle for promoting economic cooperation and collaboration among its member states and external partners, including China and the US. An Indonesian initiative, the outlook is too new to significantly impact the current situation in the South China Sea.

As novel as it may be, it is still worth Indonesia giving it a shot.

But it is in the Code of Conduct on the South China Sea where ASEAN can make a bigger impact in calming tensions, if only it can convince China.

The code is probably the only thing that ASEAN members can agree on when it comes to dealing with China. The regional bloc is already polarized in the superpower rivalry between the US and China, and most of itsmembers have aligned with either of the two camps. A few, including Indonesia, are barely managing to remain nonaligned.

While we cannot expect ASEAN to come up with a common position on China, members are unanimous about pushing to sign the code of conduct.

We don’t expect current ASEAN chair Cambodia to do bidding, so this leaves Indonesia as the only one among the 10 ASEAN member states capable of taking up the challenge.

We don’t have that much time. Indonesia should persuade China to sit down and complete the negotiations on the code of conduct. War would be detrimental to everyone, including China.

In the meantime, as ASEAN and China resume negotiations, it would be highly appreciated if China showed a gesture of goodwill by denouncing the use of force in settling territorial disputes.

The last thing we want is to look back and think a few years or even a few months from now, if war erupts, “if only we had signed the code of conduct”. By then, it will definitely be too late.

***

Endy Bayuni is a senior journalist at The Jakarta Post.

He is Honorary Member of the Romanian Institute for Europe-Asia Studies - IRSEA

The article was first published in The Jakarta Post and is reposted here with the writer's permission

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the official policy, position or view of IRSEA