The State of Southeast Asia: 2024 Survey Report
It is very well known and recognized evidence that Southeast Asia has a significant importance and role, globally, and, particularly, in Asia-Pacific developments, while The Association of Southeast Asia Nations – ASEAN is unanimously and officially accepted as the driving force in the regional architecture.
The Romanian Institute for Europe – Asia Studies- IRSEA is carefully following the important evolving moments and evolutions in the region as it is now the case of the most recently published the 6th early State of Southeast Asia: 2024 Survey Report conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (formerly Institute of Southeast Asian Studies) in Singapore.
As per the official presentation, the Survey continues to gauge the views and perceptions of Southeast Asians on geopolitical developments affecting the region, key international affairs and how ASEAN Dialogue Partners have engaged with the region over the preceding year and it was finalized with the following highlights:
- Southeast Asia continues to face unprecedented challenges in the rapidly changing global geopolitical and economic environment and the evolving dynamics between major powers. Unemployment and economic recession remain the region’s most pressing concern (57.7%), followed by the impact of climate change (53.4%), and the intensifying economic tensions between major powers (47.0%). Terrorism continues to rank last (10.0%).
- Political divisions, territorial disputes, and spill-over effects from conflicts continue to be strategic uncertainties facing the region. Israel Hamas conflict (46.5%) and aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea (39.9%) are the region’s top geopolitical concerns followed by the Russia-Ukraine war (39.4%), and global scam operations (39.4%) tied at third place. Implications arising from the January 2024 Taiwan elections is ranked last (7.6%)
- A large proportion of Southeast Asia respondents are concerned that Israel’s attack on Gaza has gone too far. Rise in extremist activities (29.7%), diminished trust in international law and rules-based order (27.5%), and erosion of domestic social cohesion (17.5%) are the most serious impacts of the Israel-Hamas conflict on Southeast Asia
- China continues to be seen as the most influential economic (59.5%) and political-strategic (43.9%) power in the region, outpacing the US by significant margins in both domains. Among ASEAN’s eleven Dialogue Partners, China (mean score of 8.98 out of 11.0) tops the charts in terms of strategic relevance to ASEAN, followed by the US (8.79), and Japan (7.48). The partners of least strategic relevance are: India (5.04), Canada (3.81) and New Zealand (3.70).
- Touted as the world’s first regional digital economy agreement, 38.0% of respondents feel that the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) would significantly contribute to raising digital capabilities and enhancing regional digital trade while 2.6% feel that it will not change the status quo. 16.8% of the respondents are not aware of the existence of the agreement
- Singapore and Indonesia, two original ASEAN founding members, are acknowledged as having made the biggest contributions to ASEAN’s long-term development and progress. Singapore holds 66.0% whereas Indonesia holds 41.5% of the votes for regional leadership
- China has edged past the US to become the prevailing choice (50.5%) if the region were forced to align itself in the on-going US-China rivalry. The US as a choice dropped from 61.1% in the previous year to 49.5%. Close to half of the respondents (46.8%) believe that ASEAN should enhance its resilience and unity to fend off pressures from the two major powers.
- Japan remains the most trusted major power among Southeast Asians (58.9%). The US comes in a distant second (42.4%), outpacing the EU (41.5%) by a narrow margin. Half of the respondents (50.1%) express distrust towards China with 45.5% of them fearing that China could use its economic and military power to threaten their country’s interest and sovereignty.
Please follow the links for full document:
https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/The-State-of-SEA-2024.pdf
GS
This document was published by ISEAS/ASEAN Study Centre.
IRSEA and ISEAS have agreed to enter into a relationship of cooperation.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the official policy, position or view of IRSEA.